On the weekend we had local elections in Belgium. For our local region, the outcome was very nice: a mix of socialists and greens in power, with a focus on improving bilingual schools and growing the car-free areas of the neighbourhood.
But the big story of the elections was the growth of N-VA, mirroring the Federal election results a few years ago. I don't hide the fact that I detest N-VA and their leader, Bart De Wever, for their general nasty bigotry. De Wever has a long history of seedy partial associations with far right neo-Nazi characters, but it is enough at arms length that he doesn't carry with him their taint. However, whatever you want to say about De Wever, he is the political story of the decade in Belgium, changing the electoral map, coming from nowhere to being the largest party in Flanders.
So who exactly is voting for N-VA and De Wever? The changes from the Provincial election results since 2006 are a good indication of who makes up N-VA:
* A block of voters come from their 2006 coalition with the Christian conservatives (CD&V)
* The Socialist Party (SP.a) lost 40% of its vote, but largely this was to Green/Socialist alliance and similar parties. Overall, the Green/Socalist block was reduced by 2.8%, which presumbly went over to N-VA.
* The economic liberals (Open VLD) lost 20% of its vote, presumbly to N-VA (no one else increased their vote)
* The neo-Nazi Vlaams Belang party lost a whopping 60% of its vote to N-VA
Based on these figures, N-VA voters are:
* 45% former neo-Nazi voters (VB)
* 30% former Christian conversatives (CD&V, formally in alliance with N-VA in 2006)
* 15% former economic liberals (Open VLB)
* 10% former socialists (SP.a), largely from small towns where their vote died
So any time someone in Flemish politics wants to wave a magic wand and cleanse De Wever from all the hatred he spreads, it is worth remembering that he is drawing around half his vote from a hard-core neo-Nazi party. It is just that his bigotry has a thin veneer of respect, allowing him to pull in extra votes from the other conservative parties.